Follow up: April 2022, May 2022, June 2022, July 2022, August 2022, September 2022, October 2022, November 2022, December 2022 There are no new GPU launches this month, after a bit of activity as of late like the RTX 3050 and RX 6500 XT releases from Nvidia and AMD, respectively. There are however a few upcoming products before we get into next-gen territory, hopefully at the end of this year.
The GeForce RTX 3090 Ti was announced back at CES, but hasn’t materialized just yet. We’re expecting to hear more about that shortly. Then on the AMD side, there are rumors of a mid-cycle RDNA2 refresh before RDNA3 launches. To be clear, good availability doesn’t mean good pricing. We’re still not in the position where retail pricing is matching advertised MSRPs. But we’re getting close, and if products continue to sit on store shelves, prices will continue to fall. There are also unconfirmed rumors about Nvidia lowering the price they sell GPUs to AIBs (board makers). We were unable to verify that rumor, but there is clear evidence of prices improving, so there’s plenty of price movement either way.
In Australia, to cite one example, pricing for many overpriced GPUs have been falling substantially, some falling off a cliff overnight. The Asus GeForce RTX 3080 TUF Gaming OC was one example, falling from $2300 AUD to $1500 overnight, a cool 35% reduction in one go. For some of the most expensive products, the ones that have managed to resist price corrections up until this point, we’re expecting even more of that in the coming weeks.
GPU Pricing Update
Here’s where pricing currently sits for all current generation GPUs using Newegg, using the lowest price in stock. Do note, this list was accurate as of writing, but pricing is changing fast and often so we do recommend checking the links for up to date information if you’re interested. Across all 16 GPUs, the average price inflation right now is 44% above MSRP though this varies substantially depending on the model. Older GPUs, released with… let’s say more unrealistic MSRPs, have the highest amount of inflation at the moment. For example, the RTX 3070 is sitting 72% above its $500 MSRP, and the RX 6800 XT is sitting 74% above its $650 MSRP. However, newer GPUs with MSRPs set during the middle of the GPU pricing crisis have less pronounced inflation. Right now you can purchase a Radeon RX 6600 for 21% over MSRP, and the 6500 XT for just 13% above MSRP. We’re seeing similar trends with the RTX 3080 Ti at 19% above MSRP, which is the lowest inflation for a GeForce GPU.
We can also observe a marked difference between Nvidia and AMD products. Nvidia’s average price inflation is 50%, while AMD’s is 38%. That’s an improvement over most of 2021, where both brands were over 100% inflation. The reason for this discrepancy between GPU makers are explained by AMD’s MSRPs been slightly more realistic, especially for their entry-level cards, and also that Nvidia GPUs are usually in higher demand and therefore in shorter supply. The key question now is… if we’ve seen prices fall from 2.5x MSRP to ~1.5x MSRP, how close to MSRP can we get? We see no reason why prices can’t continue to fall. We’re not that far away from the RX 6600 and RX 6500 XT hitting MSRP or within 10% of MSRP, which is a standard AIB margin. For the most in-demand products, such as the RTX 3070 and RTX 3060, hitting those MSRPs is going to take longer, but we certainly haven’t reached the price floor just yet.
It’s also important to note, there’s a heap of variation between the cheapest and most expensive GPUs. Take the Radeon RX 6900 XT as an example. The cheapest model in stock and sold by Newegg is the Phantom Gaming D model from Asrock at $1,300, or alternatively the Nitro+ from Sapphire and Gaming X Trio from MSI. But if you want the Gigabyte Aorus Master you’re looking at more like $1,600, which frankly isn’t going to see many sales at a $300 premium over the others. The resurgence of the retail market, where you can just go to a store and buy products at any time has basically killed off the business model of scalpers. The availability of brand new GPUs on eBay has plummeted in the last month, and many of the models that are listed, don’t end up selling as they are simply overpriced compared to the cheapest models at retail. And as a buyer why would you take the risk on some random eBay seller over a retailer, even if that retailer is Newegg?
Nvidia GPU Pricing Trend 2022
Average Sale Price of eBay Completed Listings, New Products, 3rd Week of Month
With that said, some are still purchasing cards on eBay and we have lots of historical data for the scalper market, so let’s take a look at how pricing has moved in the last month. For both Nvidia and AMD GPUs, every single card has hit its lowest price since we began recording data in early 2021. Prices have dropped by 10% on average, not quite as substantial as the drops we saw in February, but still solid price movement to get more cards closer to MSRP. This data can’t be directly compared to what we were just showing from Newegg. For retail prices we are using the lowest available, whereas on eBay we like to use averages for actual transactions. However it’s interesting to note that the average sold price on eBay is 14% higher for Nvidia GPUs than Newegg’s lowest price, which is close to the amount eBay charges sellers in fees.
AMD GPU Pricing Trend 2021-2022
Average Sale Price of eBay Completed Listings, New Products, 3rd Week of Month
AMD GPUs have fallen in price 13% on average, including a huge 22% drop for the RX 6600, which we suspect is due to substantial retail market pressure for a card that’s widely available now. The average sale price for AMD cards was 11% higher than the lowest price at Newegg, so again it doesn’t make a lot of sense to buy from a scalper unless you happen to get a lower-than-retail deal and end up costing the seller money – which is a good thing as no one likes scalpers. eBay still has a purpose though. If you’re looking for a used GPU, this is the place to look for some. Given the way the market is headed, if you have a used GPU lying around you might want to sell it sooner rather than later as pricing is unlikely to head back up.
For GeForce 20 series cards, as an example, prices fell 11% month on month, and Turing GPUs are now finally selling used for roughly their MSRP, or in some cases lower. The RTX 2060 Super is the outlier here, that card is in demand and is bizarrely selling for ~$500 used, which is about what it costs to buy a new and much faster RTX 3060. In our day-one testing, the RTX 3060 was 17% faster at 1440p, so make sure you watch out for these anomalies if you are planning on buying used graphics cards. The GeForce 16 series remains inflated as these GPUs have only recently received new competition from the RTX 3050 and RX 6600. However prices have come down 12% on average in the last month. AMD’s Radeon RX 6600 is available for around $400 new, just 14% more than the GTX 1660 Super is going for used on average, yet the RX 6600 is over 35% faster, so in that instance it makes more sense to get a new RX 6600.
There is a flipside to that though. The GTX 1650 Super at $220 used on average, versus the newer RX 6500 XT, which is priced at $225 new. The GTX 1650 Super is actually a little bit faster in our testing than the 6500 XT when using a PCIe 4.0 configuration, and much faster when both are in a PCIe 3.0 system. The 1650 Super also has other benefits like full media encoder support and more display outputs, so it’s the obvious choice even if the card is used. Pascal GPUs have fallen in price by around 10 percent, now sitting 25% below their ancient MSRPs from over 5 years ago. In most instances, it’s hard to recommend buying such an old GPU, they might have been a good and cheap stopgap option when pricing was insane, but these days it just doesn’t feel right to recommend Pascal when prices continue to fall in the new market and for better used GPUs. As for Radeon RX 5000 series GPUs. Oh boy, if you didn’t sell one of these cards previously, you missed a trick. These first-gen RDNA cards have fallen in price by a huge 18% month on month, which is almost entirely due to the reduction in profitability in crypto mining. We haven’t talked a lot about the crypto market in this article, but essentially mining profitability is lower than ever, and the 5000 series was especially good at mining and therefore highly sought-after for mining rigs. As the crypto market continues to stagnate and fall, owners of cards like the 5700 XT in mining rigs don’t want them anymore, and are selling them at lower prices than they did before. Finally, we have AMD’s older GPUs in the Polaris and Vega series. Many of these GPUs have also been affected by crypto mining, with large price reductions seen across the Vega line and with the RX 580 8GB that was scooped up in bulk by miners. The RX 580 8GB isn’t a particularly amazing buy in the current market, but with a 21% price drop compared to last month, it’s approaching a reasonable price for budget builds. However, in a similar vein to Nvidia Pascal GPUs, Polaris is an old architecture right now so I’d be hesitant jumping in when the price is still higher than its launch MSRP all those years ago. That’s where pricing is at for GPUs in March 2022… decent price drops across the board for all GPUs, which now sit at their lowest prices in over a year. The reductions we saw in March weren’t as large as in February, but it’s still substantial compared to anything we saw in 2021. That’s excellent news for PC builders and GPU buyers. The best news this month is that GPUs are readily available pretty much everywhere, any model you could want is on shelves in some form or another. Now of course, not at the price we want, but you no longer have to resort to the scalper market to get a GPU. In fact you shouldn’t, as GPUs are more expensive on eBay than at retail for new models, finally taking significant steps towards killing off the scalper market.
Should you buy a new GPU right now?
My answer to this is similar to last month. It depends on your situation. If you’ve been waiting ages and are comfortable to wait longer, we don’t believe we have hit the price floor for GPUs yet, and we think pricing close to MSRP is achievable, especially for more recent releases like the RTX 3050 and RX 6600. If you are desperate to upgrade or are looking to buy a new gaming PC right now, it’s a pretty decent time, the best time of any in the past 18 months. That alone will make sense for some people to buy a GPU now.
Whether or not you jump in now or continue to wait for the price floor to be hit, that depends on your situation and how “desperate” you are. The more inadequate your current GPU is, the more reason there is to upgrade. It’s also worth reminding you that we are expecting to see next-generation GPUs at the end of this year. We believe we’ll run into availability issues again when next-gen GPUs launch and could even see prices rise for existing GPUs around that time – especially if current models are discontinued. But of course, there’s a lot of uncertainty as we are talking about many months in the future.
